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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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