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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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