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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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