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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
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