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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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