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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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