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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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