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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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