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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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