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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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