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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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