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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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