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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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