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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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