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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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