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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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