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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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