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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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