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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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