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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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