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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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