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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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