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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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