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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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