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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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