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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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