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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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