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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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