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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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