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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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