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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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