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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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