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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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