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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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