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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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