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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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