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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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