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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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