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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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