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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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