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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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