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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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