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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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