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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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