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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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