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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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