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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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