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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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