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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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