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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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