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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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